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Creators/Authors contains: "Blair, John"

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  1. Abstract ContextThe > 25,000 km2Flint Hills ecoregion in eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, USA, is an economically and ecologically important area encompassing the largest remaining tallgrass prairie ecosystem in North America. Prescribed fires are used routinely to control invasive woody species and improve forage production for the beef-cattle industry. However, burning releases harmful pollutants that, at times, contribute to air quality problems for communities across a multi-state area. ObjectivesEstablish a modeling framework for synthesizing long-term ecological data in support of Flint Hills tallgrass prairie management goals for identifying how much, where, and when rangeland burning can be conducted to maximize ecological and economic benefits while minimizing regional air quality impacts. MethodsWe used EPA’s VELMA ecohydrology model to synthesize long-term experimental data at the 35 km2Konza Prairie Biological Station (KPBS) describing the effects of climate, fire, grazing, topography, and soil moisture and nutrient dynamics on tallgrass prairie productivity and fuel loads; and to spatially extrapolate that synthesis to estimate grassland productivity and fuel loads across the nearly 1000 times larger Flint Hills ecoregion to support prescribed burning smoke trajectory modeling using the State of Kansas implementation of the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky framework. ResultsVELMA provided a performance-tested synthesis of KPBS data from field observations and experiments, thereby establishing a tool for regionally simulating the combined effects of climate, fire, grazing, topography, soil moisture, and nutrients on tallgrass prairie productivity and fuel loads. VELMA’s extrapolation of that synthesis allowed difficult-to-quantify fuel loads to be mapped across the Flint Hills to support environmental decision making, such as forecasting when, where, and how prescribed burning will have the least impact on downwind population centers. ConclusionsOur regional spatial and temporal extrapolation of VELMA’s KPBS data synthesis posits that the effects of integrated ecohydrological processes operate similarly across tallgrass prairie spatial scales. Based on multi-scale performance tests of the VELMA-BlueSky toolset, our multi-institution team is confident that it can assist stakeholders and decision makers in realistically exploring tallgrass prairie management options for balancing air quality, tallgrass prairie sustainability, and associated economic benefits for the Flint Hills ecoregion and downwind communities. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2026
  2. The widespread extirpation of megafauna may have destabilized ecosystems and altered biodiversity globally. Most megafauna extinctions occurred before the modern record, leaving it unclear how their loss impacts current biodiversity. We report the long-term effects of reintroducing plains bison ( Bison bison ) in a tallgrass prairie versus two land uses that commonly occur in many North American grasslands: 1) no grazing and 2) intensive growing-season grazing by domesticated cattle ( Bos taurus ). Compared to ungrazed areas, reintroducing bison increased native plant species richness by 103% at local scales (10 m 2 ) and 86% at the catchment scale. Gains in richness continued for 29 y and were resilient to the most extreme drought in four decades. These gains are now among the largest recorded increases in species richness due to grazing in grasslands globally. Grazing by domestic cattle also increased native plant species richness, but by less than half as much as bison. This study indicates that some ecosystems maintain a latent potential for increased native plant species richness following the reintroduction of native herbivores, which was unmatched by domesticated grazers. Native-grazer gains in richness were resilient to an extreme drought, a pressure likely to become more common under future global environmental change. 
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  3. The intensification of drought throughout the U.S. Great Plains has the potential to have large impacts on grassland functioning, as has been shown with dramatic losses of plant productivity annually. Yet, we have a poor understanding of how grassland functioning responds after drought ends. This study examined how belowground nutrient cycling responds after drought and whether legacy effects persist postdrought. We assessed the 2-year recovery of nutrient cycling processes following a 4-year experimental drought in a mesic grassland by comparing two different growing season drought treatments—chronic (each rainfall event reduced by 66%) and intense (all rain eliminated until 45% of annual rainfall was achieved)—to the control (ambient precipitation) treatment. At the beginning of the first growing season postdrought, we found that in situ soil CO2 efflux and laboratory-based soil microbial respiration were reduced by 42% and 22%, respectively, in the intense drought treatment compared to the control, but both measures had recovered by midseason (July) and remained similar to the control treatment in the second postdrought year. We also found that extractable soil ammonium and total inorganic N were elevated throughout the growing season in the first year after drought in the intense treatment. However, these differences in inorganic N pools did not persist during the growing season of the second year postdrought. The remaining measures of C and N cycling in both drought treatments showed no postdrought treatment effects. Thus, although we observed short-term legacy effects following the intense drought, C and N cycling returned to levels comparable to nondroughted grassland within a single growing season regardless of whether the drought was intense or chronic in nature. Overall, these results suggest that the key aspects of C and N cycling in mesic tallgrass prairie do not exhibit persistent legacies from 4 years of experimentally induced drought. 
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  6. abstract Long-term observations and experiments in diverse drylands reveal how ecosystems and services are responding to climate change. To develop generalities about climate change impacts at dryland sites, we compared broadscale patterns in climate and synthesized primary production responses among the eight terrestrial, nonforested sites of the United States Long-Term Ecological Research (US LTER) Network located in temperate (Southwest and Midwest) and polar (Arctic and Antarctic) regions. All sites experienced warming in recent decades, whereas drought varied regionally with multidecadal phases. Multiple years of wet or dry conditions had larger effects than single years on primary production. Droughts, floods, and wildfires altered resource availability and restructured plant communities, with greater impacts on primary production than warming alone. During severe regional droughts, air pollution from wildfire and dust events peaked. Studies at US LTER drylands over more than 40 years demonstrate reciprocal links and feedbacks among dryland ecosystems, climate-driven disturbance events, and climate change. 
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